(NEXSTAR) – A strong El Niño is even more likely, national forecasters revealed Thursday. The Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said there’s a near-100% the climate phenomenon will stick with us throughout the entire winter season.
With near-certainty El Niño will last until spring, we can take a closer look at how the climate pattern will affect weather around the country.
In Nevada, El Niño’s biggest impacts tend to be in the southern part of the state, says the University of Nevada, Reno. Southern Nevada tends to see more storms and precipitation in an El Niño year.
That’s because El Niño typically splits the country in half, bringing wetter weather to the southern half and drier conditions up north. However, it’s hard to predict where exactly that line will fall.
This winter, NOAA’s early predictions draw the line pretty far south, with just the southern tip of Nevada leaning toward extra-wet weather. The predictions could change as we get closer to the winter months.
Southeastern states, on the other hand, look most likely to have above-average precipitation the next three months. The outlook comes amid a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic, which has already produced 14 named storms.
When it comes to temperature, the winter outlook isn’t looking very wintery for much of the country, including half of Nevada. Dozens of states, especially up north, are predicted to see above-average temperatures this winter.
That pattern is also consistent with a typical El Niño year.
The Pacific Northwest and Northeast are most likely to have above-average temperatures through winter, according to NOAA’s long-range outlook.
As we get closer to winter, the impacts of El Niño are likely to become even clearer. La Niña and El Niño both tend to reach their peak in the winter season.
NOAA forecasters said Thursday there’s a 75% to 85% chance this year’s El Niño will be a “strong” one, and a 30% chance it will end up being one of the strongest ever recorded.