8 News NOW/LVRJ Poll: Tarkanian Leads Horsford by Five Points - 8 News NOW

8 News NOW/LVRJ Poll: Tarkanian Leads Horsford

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If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Nevada's 4th Congressional District were today, would you vote for ... If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Nevada's 4th Congressional District were today, would you vote for ...
Is your opinion of Danny Tarkanian ... Is your opinion of Danny Tarkanian ...
Is your opinion of Steven Horsford ... Is your opinion of Steven Horsford ...
What one issue should your Congressman focus on ahead of all others ...? What one issue should your Congressman focus on ahead of all others ...?
Who will fight harder to create jobs for Nevadans? Who will fight harder to create jobs for Nevadans?

LAS VEGAS -- In a race still too close to call, Republican Danny Tarkanian leads Democrat Steven Horsford 47 percent to 42 percent in their battle to become the first representative of Nevada's 4th Congressional District, an 8 News NOW/Las Vegas Review-Journal poll released early Tuesday morning found.

The cell phone and landline poll of 648 likely and actual voters, conducted Friday through Sunday by SurveyUSA of Clifton, N.J., also found 6 percent of respondents favor other candidates and 5 percent remain undecided.

With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent, the latest tally represents a slight improvement for Tarkanian from a similar 8 News NOW/LVRJ poll last month that pegged his lead at 45 to 42 percent. But Horsford leads in early voting 48 to 40 percent.

The poll also found that President Barack Obama, a Democrat, and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney each have 48 percent support among likely and actual voters in the congressional district. Among the respondents, 2 percent are undecided, 1 percent favor Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson and 1 percent prefer other candidates.

That contrasts with Obama's 9 percentage point lead over Romney among likely voters in September, when the president had a 52 to 43 percent advantage. Among those who have voted, Obama leads 55 to 42 percent. But Romney holds a 56 to 38 percent advantage among those who haven't voted.

The newly drawn district includes the northern valley, northern Clark County and portions of Esmeralda, Lincoln, Lyon, Mineral, Nye and White Pine counties.

A major difference between last month's poll and this one is the slippage in Horsford's favorability rating. He is viewed favorably by 29 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 38 percent, for a favorability rating of minus nine. Last month, Horsford enjoyed a favorability rating of plus eight.

Tarkanian's favorability rating also slipped but not as dramatically, dipping from plus 14 to plus 11.

His improvement in the poll comes despite the fact 42 percent of respondents are Democrats, compared to only 32 percent who are Republicans and 26 percent who are independents.

Tarkanian enjoys an advantage over Horsford in these demographics: men, 53 to 39 percent; 18- to 34-year-olds, 45 to 36 percent; those 65 and older, 54 to 37 percent; whites, 57 to 34 percent; Asian-Americans, 43 to 33 percent; those who haven't yet voted, 56 to 33 percent; Republicans, 92 to 4 percent; independents, 49 to 32 percent; tea party members, 82 to 16 percent; conservatives, 79 to 16 percent; and nonunion households, 50 to 40 percent.

Tarkanian also holds the edge among Clark County residents, 46 to 43 percent, residents outside the county, 57 to 30 percent; urban residents, 48 to 42 percent; rural residents, 61 to 34 percent; those who didn't go beyond high school, 47 to 39 percent; those with some college experience, 46 to 41 percent; college degree holders, 50 to 41 percent; middle-income earners, 51 to 39 percent; and those who earn more than $80,000 annually, 47 to 45 percent.

Horsford leads in these demographics: women, 45 to 41 percent; 35- to 49-year-olds, 47 to 43 percent; 50- to 64-year-olds, 45 to 43 percent; blacks, 78 to 13 percent; Hispanics, 52 to 30 percent; Democrats, 77 to 11 percent; moderates, 46 to 39 percent; and union households, 47 to 38 percent.

The two major party candidates are either tied or within 1 percent of each other among non-tea party members, suburban residents, and those who earn less than $40,000 a year.

Among other results in the poll:

* When asked what one issue their congressman should focus on ahead of all others, 53 percent said jobs, followed by the federal debt, 11 percent, health care, 10 percent, education, 9 percent, taxes, 5 percent, immigration, 4 percent, abortion, 3 percent, and housing, 2 percent.

* When asked who will fight harder to create jobs for Nevadans, Tarkanian was the choice over Horsford 46 to 37 percent. Tarkanian led on this question 42 to 38 percent last month.

* When asked who has more personal integrity, Tarkanian was favored by 44 percent versus 32 percent for Horsford. Tarkanian edged Horsford 38 to 34 percent on this question last month.

* When asked who better understands the difference between right and wrong, Tarkanian was the choice over Horsford 43 to 31 percent. Tarkanian was ahead 38 to 32 percent on this question a month ago.

* When asked who thinks they are above the law, 36 percent selected Horsford and 25 percent chose Tarkanian. Horsford led Tarkanian 28 to 25 percent on this question in September.

The respondents included 326 women and 322 men. Sixty percent are 50 and older, 66 percent are white, 13 percent are black, 12 percent are Hispanic and 9 percent are Asian-American. Some 57 percent have already voted.

Of those polled, 37 percent are conservative, 36 percent are moderate and 19 percent are liberal. Three-quarters live in nonunion households, and 87 percent reside in Clark County. Some 82 percent have some college experience or earned a college degree. One-third earn more than $80,000 annually, 42 percent are middle-income earners, and 25 percent earn less than $40,000 a year.

 

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